College Football Playoff expert picks: Alabama, Notre Dame or Miami in last spots? How 12-team field may look
Notre Dame vs. Miami is the debate of the year, but is three-loss Alabama suspect? Are bubble teams BYU and Texas toast? And will Duke jump James Madison? Setting the table for the CFP argument.
By
Chris Hummer
•
12 min read
There are a few at-large spots in the 2025 College Football Playoff up for grabs. And given who's pitted against each other for the final spots, do not expect Sunday's 12 p.m. ET release on ESPN to be the last you hear about this year's biggest debate.
Old blood rivals Notre Dame and Miami are duking it out for what we think is the last at-large spot. It should make it less complicated they played each other the first week of the season. Alas.
Frankly, there are several points of consternation for the CFP Selection Committee to worth through into the wee hours Sunday morning as it moves to set a 12-team bracket, with a special eye on the weirdness unfolding in Charlotte, where 8-5 Duke just made a playoff argument by virtue of winning the messy ACC. Did Alabama play itself out of the Big Dance? What about BYU? And why is nobody talking about Texas as a bubble team?
None are as big or controversial as the Irish versus the Hurricanes, so let's start there.
Miami vs. Notre Dame debate will rage into the night
With No. 11 BYU suffering a second 20-plus point defeat on the season to Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game, the final at-large bid will likely come down to No. 10 Notre Dame vs. No. 12 Miami.
On paper this is an easy call: Notre Dame maintains its positioning and reaches the CFB Playoff.
What complicates that is the on-field reality that happened Sept. 1 when Notre Dame lost, 27-24, to Miami at Hard Rock Stadium. It was a big win for Miami at the time. It feels massive now.
But the committee, at least thus far, hasn't respected that head-to-head result.
The Irish and Hurricanes had the same number of losses (two) for every ranking release. The Irish debuted at No. 11. Miami first appeared in the rankings at No. 18. The Hurricanes have crept up the rankings each week as teams in front of them suffered losses. But the CFP Selection Committee has always kept at least one team between them with a pair of committee chairmen explaining that head-to-head results are only a single datapoint it uses to seed teams. In other words, the committee hasn't to this point compared Notre Dame and Miami in the same tier.
Said chairman Hunter Yurachek on Tuesday: "It's obviously easier to use that datapoint when the teams are back-to-back as opposed to when they're separated by a team or two or three, as has been the case."
We'll see how the committee chooses to view Notre Dame and Miami when they are back to back as is expected after BYU's loss.
Both fan bases would have a gripe if they were left out.
On one hand, the results on the field should matter. These teams played and Miami won. If their records are equal, you'd think that's an easy tiebreaker.
On the other, nothing changed between Dec. 2 and Dec. 7, so there isn't really a rational argument for the committee to flip them.
As TCU fans would tell you after their 2014 experience, rationality doesn't always matter in these situations.
We asked a committee of our college football experts which team they think would rank higher Sunday. Here are those results.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame or Miami? |  | | |  | | | | | |
And for your message board and social media battles, here are some numbers to compare the two sides leading into the decision:
Strength of Schedule (Per ESPN)
Notre Dame: 42nd
Miami: 44th
Record Against Currently Ranked Teams
Notre Dame: 1-2
Miami: 1-0
SP+ Ranking
Notre Dame: 5th
Miami: 9th
It does not appear that Notre Dame and Miami can both make the Playoff, unless ...
... How does the committee handle Alabama?
A three-loss team has never made the playoff. That comes with the obvious caveat that we're only in Year 2 of the 12-team system. But it's notable all the same given that No. 9 Alabama, at 10-3, is fully in the spotlight after a 21-point SEC championship game loss to Georgia.
It would be a surprise if Alabama gets left out. In our expert panel, nine of nine voters said Alabama will make the CFP -- though one added, with some color, the Tide "should not."
Former Tide running back Damien Harris agrees, saying on CBS Sports HQ that Alabama is not a playoff team.
Here's the deal: Yeah, it was ugly, but dropping a team out because of a championship game result sets a bad precedent and would make teams question participating in conference title games in the future.
At the same time … Alabama will have three losses, including a double-digit defeat to a 5-7 Florida State team.
Given the Tide have a road win over Georgia on their resume along with a 16-point win over Vanderbilt, it's still unlikely they get left out. But Alabama is going to sweat a little going into Saturday afternoon, that's for sure. Here is how our expert panel voted on the last two at-large spots.
Duke wins the ACC, but does it make the CFP?
You could almost feel this happening the moment No. 25 James Madison showed up in Tuesday's CFP rankings. The ACC's bad dream is Miami getting left at home in favor of Notre Dame, but its nightmare is not making the CFP at all.
Because unranked Duke beat No. 17 Virginia on a cold Saturday night in Charlotte, that scenario is in play. The Blue Devils are 8-5 now, and commissioner Jim Phillips and his brain trust will hold their breath that a ranked win to end the season is enough to go from unranked to ahead of wherever Sun Belt champion James Madison goes. Of our nine-person panel, only three thought Duke had very little shot. The ACC is surely happy James Madison did not beat Troy going away in its conference championship Friday (the spread was around 25, the final was a 14-point James Madison win) and it is not like Duke is a bad team. But the Blue Devils had ample chances all season to beat ranked teams, and Saturday night was the first time they did that. In my opinion, a five-loss team simply cannot make the CFP.
Does BYU, a CCG loser like Alabama, have any argument?
If the conference championship game isn't going to hurt Alabama's ability to make the field, why should it impact BYU?
The No. 11 Cougars will make that argument after an 11-1 regular season. I just don't think they made a strong enough case in a 34-7 loss to Texas Tech. It's BYU's second three-score loss to the Red Raiders this season. Given BYU only has one top 25 win this year (Utah) and it doesn't stack up as well in the advanced metrics (No. 14 in SP+), a loss in that fashion is too difficult to overcome.
What about Texas?
If a three-loss Alabama is going to be considered for the playoff field, what about Texas?
The Longhorns are 3-2 against top 15 teams (as they are currently ranked), with two of those losses coming on the road to top five opponents (Ohio State, Georgia). They also are the only team to beat No. 7 Texas A&M this season.
Despite the narrative Texas is pushing about scheduling Ohio State in Week 1, its real problem is a bad road loss to now 4-8 Florida. Win that game and the Longhorns -- with wins over Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma -- are easily the top-ranked two-loss team (and here's where rabid Texas fans point out that Alabama lost to Florida State, which lost to Florida, or that Oklahoma managed just six points against them -- yet has been more valued by the committee almost the entire run of voting).
Texas fell seven spots, from No. 10 to No. 17, when it lost by 25 at Georgia in mid-November, so it would probably point to Alabama's 21-point loss vs. Georgia this weekend as grounds for the Tide to seriously drop, but there are obvious complications to that point such as the game occurring during the conference championship and Alabama having already beaten Georgia.
Unfortunately for the Longhorns, there are just too many teams ahead of them in the rankings at No. 13 entering the week. They probably are a top 12 team in the country, but the playoff as currently constructed does not get the 12 best teams in the playoff. It is still determined by a mix of best and most deserving. Under rule of a committee who places ample value in wins and losses, those three regular season losses make any argument for Texas rather difficult against a sea of two-loss teams.
Projecting the first-round byes
The top four of the playoff rankings seem clear heading into Sunday's selection show -- and by the way, only one member of our expert panel thinks should lose its bye week.
Not that the order isn't up for debate. Big Ten champion Indiana is No. 1 seed. I don't think Ohio State, which was No. 1 all season, should drop beyond No. 2 for losing to Indiana. Georgia is likely the No. 3 -- and a real strong one, at that. Then there's Texas Tech at No. 4.
No. 1 Indiana (13-0)
No. 2 Ohio State (12-1)
No. 3 Georgia (12-1)
No. 4 Texas Tech (12-1)
Filling out the CFP bracket
Hot off the presses, here's how my colleague Brad Crawford thinks the committee slots the 12-team field, along with his analysis.
1. Indiana: What a finish from the Hoosiers. The committee will move Indiana to No. 1 in the rankings following its win over Ohio State. Indiana has there wins this season over ranked competition, but this was the best of the year against the unbeaten defending national champions.
2. Ohio State: After getting through the gauntlet of last season's playoff as a low-seed, the Buckeyes are going to be one of the teams to beat this time around after nearly getting through the regular season and the Big Ten Championship Game unscathed. Losing to Indiana hurts, but the Buckeyes have been here before and now start their trek toward another title.
3. Georgia: The Bulldogs should move into the No. 3 slot as the SEC champions, especially after their beatdown of Alabama on the grand stage in Atlanta to avenge their only loss of the season against the Crimson Tide. It was a vintage performance defensively after Georgia limited the Crimson Tide to negative yardage on the ground with Alabama's lone score coming in the fourth quarter. No team in the country outside of Ohio State played better down the stretch against stiff competition than the Bulldogs.
4. Texas Tech: The first 12-win season in school history and a conference championship won. That's a key element in the Red Raiders potentially moving ahead of Big Ten runner-up Ohio State in Sunday's final rankings. The Red Raiders dominated the Big 12 Championship Game, torching the league's second-best team -- BYU -- for a second time this season. The committee has a decision to make for the Nos. 2, 3 and 4 spots.
5. Oregon: The Ducks saved their best execution for late in the season, running off six straight wins -- including a pair over ranked teams since the loss to Indiana -- to secure a first-round home game. Oregon's hoping to get wideouts Gary Bryant Jr. and Dakorien Moore back for the opening round and is trying to win its first playoff game under Lanning after falling to Ohio State in last year's quarterfinals at the Rose Bowl.
6. Ole Miss: Not only did losing Lane Kiffin not affect the Rebels' standing, but the committee boosted Ole Miss last week after routing Mississippi State on the road to finish 11-1. The promotion of Pete Golding to head coach coupled with Charlie Weis Jr. returning to Oxford to call plays for a postseason run strengthened the committee's opinion of Ole Miss, though we didn't hear that publicly. Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels will get a first-round home game with a chance to move on to the quarterfinals as a betting favorite.
7. Texas A&M: After sliding behind Ole Miss last week, the Aggies will be at home in the first round as a one-loss SEC selection from the at-large group. Texas A&M squandered an opening-round bye opportunity in the finale at Texas, but a victory at Notre Dame this season was one of the nation's best, and they tip-toed around several SEC opponents down the stretch to finish off one of the best regular seasons in program history.
8. Oklahoma: The committee never wavered on the Sooners despite this offense struggling to produce over its final four games of the season. Oklahoma's win at Alabama stamped its playoff trip in the first of three elimination games the Sooners won in November to get to the first round. This defense is as stout as any in the field, but it looks like Oklahoma will have to win ugly to keep it going as a title threat.
9. Notre Dame: The most debated final two at-large spots in playoff history is unfolding between three bluebloods, and if the committee follows the same path they've taken the last five weeks, the Fighting Irish and Crimson Tide will be the choices at Nos. 9 and 10 over Miami. Notre Dame had a resume-booster while the Fighting Irish and Hurricanes were idle during championship weekend as well following Boise State's win in the Mountain West Championship Game. Notre Dame beat the Broncos earlier this season, 28-7.
10. Alabama: The Crimson Tide should be very thankful the committee moved them to No. 9 last week ahead of the SEC Championship Game with Georgia. It acted as a built-in buffer, essentially. Following Saturday's lackluster play against the Bulldogs, Alabama would be out in favor of Miami had Kalen DeBoer's squad still been in the No. 10 spot coming into championship weekend. Now, the committee can simply move Alabama back one spot and avoid the Notre Dame-Miami dilemma altogether. That's where we're projecting Alabama to be in the final rankings, just ahead of the Hurricanes for the final at-large spot. Also, by seeding Notre Dame and Alabama at Nos. 9 and 10, the committee avoids regular-season rematches in the opening round of the playoff.
11. Tulane: The highest-ranked Group of Five team entering conference championship weekend, the Green Wave ran away from North Texas in the first half and never looked back to win the American under outgoing coach Jon Sumrall. Tulane will be on the road in the first round, likely facing Oregon at Autzen Stadium as a double-digit underdog.
12. James Madison: Unless the committee was convinced by five-loss Duke that the Blue Devils are worth a spot in the playoff, then JMU is going to get the final auto-bid designation by being ranked higher in the final top 25. The Dukes didn't pass the eye test in the Sun Belt final against Troy, but it was their 12th win -- and that's four more than Duke this season. Plus, JMU was ranked 25th in Tuesday's penultimate rankings.
